War in Middle East Drives Fertiliser Prices Up 45% as East Africa Enters Critical Planting Season
Nairobi, 19 March 2026
The Israel-U.S.-Iran conflict has disrupted global fertiliser supply chains just as East African nations begin their crucial 2026 planting seasons. Urea prices have soared 45% to $715 per metric tonne, whilst other essential fertilisers have risen 8-11%. With Kenya, Uganda, and Burundi already planting, and Somalia set to begin in April, the timing couldn’t be worse for regional food security. The Global Fertiliser Crisis Response Group has been reinstated to coordinate emergency responses across Africa.
Supply Chain Disruption Through Critical Maritime Route
The Israel-U.S.-Iran war has severely disrupted trade through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy and fertiliser exports [1]. This disruption has sent shockwaves through global commodity markets, with Brent crude oil approaching $120 per barrel in the second week of March 2026 [1]. The timing of this geopolitical crisis coincides precisely with Africa’s main planting seasons, which span from 18 March 2026 through July 2026 [1]. The escalation has created a perfect storm for agricultural input costs, as fertiliser production and transportation rely heavily on stable energy supplies and secure shipping routes.
Sharp Price Increases Hit Critical Agricultural Inputs
Fertiliser prices have experienced dramatic increases since the conflict began, with urea prices climbing 45 percent from pre-escalation levels to reach $715 per metric tonne in the second week of March 2026 [1]. The initial week of escalation alone saw urea prices surge by 37 percent [1]. Other essential fertilisers have also faced significant price pressures, with MAP and DAP prices rising by approximately 8 percent, whilst MOP from the Baltic region has increased by roughly 11 percent [1]. These price increases represent substantial additional costs for farmers across East Africa, who are already operating with limited financial resources and face challenging economic conditions.
Regional Planting Schedules Create Urgent Timeline Pressures
The timing of the crisis proves particularly challenging for East African agricultural systems, as several countries are already deep into their planting seasons as of 19 March 2026. Burundi, Kenya, and Uganda began their planting seasons and are currently in active cultivation phases [1]. Somalia faces imminent pressure, with its planting season expected to commence in April-May 2026 [1]. The agricultural calendar becomes even more compressed as Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Sudan prepare for their planting seasons scheduled for June-July 2026 [1]. This staggered timeline means that different countries face varying degrees of immediate impact, but all remain vulnerable to sustained price pressures and supply disruptions.
Coordinated Response Mechanisms Activated
In response to the escalating crisis, the Global Fertiliser Crisis Response Group has been reinstated as of 17 March 2026, led by IFDC, Sustain Africa, and AfricaFertilizer in collaboration with key institutions including FAO, the International Fertiliser Association, The World Bank, and the African Development Bank Group [2]. The group aims to strengthen real-time data systems, early warning mechanisms, and coordinated action across institutions, countries, and regions [2]. Learning from the 2022 to 2024 fertiliser crisis, when responses often arrived too late after planting windows had closed, the reinstated group emphasises the critical importance of speed in decision-making, timely and credible data, and trust-based partnerships [2][3]. IFDC, Sustain Africa, and AfricaFertilizer are also advancing collaboration with the African Union Commission to establish a continent-wide response mechanism specifically designed to safeguard food security across Africa [1][3].