Africa's Richest Man Favours Kenya Over Tanzania for Massive Oil Refinery
Nairobi, 10 May 2026
Billionaire Aliko Dangote has shifted preference to Kenya’s Mombasa port for his planned $17 billion East African refinery, despite President Ruto’s earlier announcement of a joint regional facility in Tanzania’s Tanga. The 650,000-barrel-per-day plant would transform East Africa’s energy landscape, as the region currently imports all refined petroleum from the Middle East. Dangote cited Mombasa’s superior port infrastructure and Kenya’s larger economy as decisive factors, stating ‘the ball is in President Ruto’s hands’ for final approval of the project.
Strategic Shift from Tanzania Creates Diplomatic Tension
Dangote’s preference for Kenya represents a significant departure from earlier regional plans announced by President William Ruto in April 2026 [1]. The initial proposal, unveiled at the Africa We Build Summit in Nairobi with Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni in attendance, envisioned a joint regional refinery at Tanzania’s Tanga port that would process crude oil from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, South Sudan, and Uganda [1]. Ruto had outlined an ambitious infrastructure plan stating that ‘we will then build a pipeline from Tanga to Mombasa, allowing finished products to move through infrastructure we jointly own with Uganda’ [1]. However, this announcement created unexpected diplomatic friction during Ruto’s state visit to Dar es Salaam on 4 May 2026, when Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan publicly rebuked him, revealing she had not been consulted about the project before Ruto went public [1].
Mombasa’s Infrastructure Advantages Drive Decision
Speaking in an interview on 10 May 2026, Dangote emphasised the practical advantages that favour Kenya’s coastal hub over Tanzania’s proposed location [2][3]. ‘I’m leaning more towards Mombasa because Mombasa has a much larger, deeper port,’ the Nigerian industrialist explained, highlighting the critical importance of maritime infrastructure for a facility designed to process 650,000 barrels per day [2][3]. Beyond port capabilities, Dangote cited Kenya’s economic fundamentals as a determining factor, noting that ‘Kenyans consume more. It’s a bigger economy’ compared to Tanzania [2][3]. The project’s estimated cost ranges between $15 billion and $17 billion, equivalent to between Sh1.93 trillion and Sh2.19 trillion at current exchange rates [2][3].
Regional Energy Security Implications
The proposed refinery addresses a critical vulnerability in East Africa’s energy supply chain, as the region currently imports all of its refined petroleum products, primarily from the Middle East [2][3]. This dependence has left East African countries exposed to supply disruptions and price volatility, particularly evident during recent geopolitical tensions including the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran [2][3]. A large-scale refinery in the region would significantly reduce this vulnerability whilst potentially lowering fuel costs across multiple countries. The facility would replicate Dangote’s existing 650,000-barrel-per-day Nigerian refinery, which operates as the world’s largest single-train refinery in Lagos [GPT].
Decision Timeline and Political Dynamics
Despite his stated preference for Kenya, Dangote has positioned the final decision squarely with Kenyan leadership, declaring that ‘the ball is in the hands of President Ruto’ and ‘whatever President Ruto says is what I’ll do’ [2][3]. This diplomatic approach reflects the complex regional politics surrounding major infrastructure projects in East Africa, particularly following the recent tensions between Kenya and Tanzania over the initial Tanga proposal [1]. The timing of Dangote’s announcement on 10 May 2026 comes just six days after the diplomatic friction in Dar es Salaam, suggesting the billionaire is navigating carefully between competing regional interests whilst maintaining flexibility for his substantial investment [1][2]. For refugee-hosting communities throughout East Africa, the eventual location of this refinery could significantly impact fuel availability and pricing, potentially affecting transportation costs and economic opportunities in regions that rely on stable energy supplies for humanitarian operations.