Sub-Saharan Africa Drives Global Arms Race Despite Continental Decline
Lagos, 11 May 2026
While Africa’s overall arms imports plummeted 41%, ten Sub-Saharan nations are bucking the trend with massive weapons purchases totalling hundreds of millions. Nigeria leads with 16% of regional imports, followed by Senegal investing nearly $300 million and Mali channelling $272 million toward Russian partnerships. This militarisation occurs amid a dangerous regional instability corridor stretching from Libya through Chad to South Sudan, where collapsed oil revenues have left security forces unpaid for nearly a year, creating conditions potentially worse than previous civil wars.
Nigeria Leads Regional Military Spending Surge
Nigeria has emerged as the dominant force in Sub-Saharan Africa’s arms procurement, accounting for approximately 16% of the region’s weapons imports [1]. The West African nation has diversified its military partnerships, acquiring combat aircraft, helicopters, armoured vehicles, ships and drones from Turkey, South Korea, China and other countries [1]. This substantial investment comes as Nigeria grapples with multiple security challenges, including insurgencies in the northeast and rising banditry across the country’s northern regions. Senegal follows closely behind with a remarkable investment of $298.46 million in military capabilities, representing an extraordinary 8.8% of its national income dedicated to arms purchases [1]. The country has focused its procurement on naval vessels, missiles and aircraft, reflecting concerns about maritime security and regional stability [1].
Mali’s Strategic Pivot to Russian Military Partnership
Mali represents perhaps the most significant shift in regional military alignment, having invested $272.17 million in arms since 2020, representing 8% of all arms imported from Africa [1]. The country’s military forces have been substantially strengthening due to ongoing conflicts with armed groups, with Mali developing increasingly closer ties with Russia as part of this military expansion [1]. This pivot away from traditional Western partners has occurred amid the withdrawal of French forces and reflects broader geopolitical realignments across the Sahel region. The timing of Mali’s military investment surge, beginning in 2020, coincides with the period following military coups that brought new leadership to power.
Regional Powers Respond to Evolving Security Threats
Ethiopia has dramatically increased its reliance on drone technology due to internal tensions stemming from the Tigray conflict, purchasing $172.85 million in arms from Russia, Turkey, Iran, the USA, the UAE, and Bosnia [1]. The country has acquired combat aircraft, drones, tanks, and armoured vehicles as it seeks to modernise its military capabilities [1]. Meanwhile, Kenya has responded to persistent security challenges, including Al-Shabaab attacks, by purchasing arms worth $140.62 million, including Bayraktar TB-2 drones and Hughes-500D helicopters from the UAE, Germany, Israel, Turkey, the USA, and South Korea [1]. Angola has been actively purchasing arms for the past five years, accounting for 4.7% of its total imports, prioritising coastal defence and air management with $160.3 million spent on aircraft engines and military boats from Spain, Belarus, France, and Canada [1].
Economic Collapse Threatens Regional Stability
The arms buildup occurs against a backdrop of severe economic instability, particularly in South Sudan, where conditions are approaching a phase potentially more dangerous than the civil war that ended in 2018 [2]. Oil revenues, which account for roughly 90% of state revenues and nearly all foreign exchange, have collapsed by over 70% due to pipeline disruptions linked to Sudan’s ongoing war [2]. Security forces and civil servants have reportedly gone unpaid for seven to 11 months, creating a dangerous vacuum where armed groups increasingly finance themselves through looting, cattle raiding, checkpoints, and remittances [2]. This economic breakdown has contributed to a contiguous instability corridor running from southern Libya through Chad and Darfur into South Sudan and the Horn of Africa, facilitating the movement of arms, fighters, fuel, gold, and smuggled capital [2]. The situation has left millions requiring humanitarian assistance, with refugees and internally displaced persons comprising almost half of South Sudan’s population [2].