Oil Prices Surge to Two-Year High as Trump Considers Military Action Against Iran
Tehran, 30 April 2026
Brent crude oil jumped nearly 7% to over $126 per barrel, reaching levels not seen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, following reports that US Central Command will brief President Trump on potential military strikes against Iran. The price surge reflects market fears over supply disruptions from a region controlling significant global oil production. UK petrol prices have already risen 24p per litre since the Iran conflict began, with diesel up 46p, directly impacting consumers. Energy executives met Trump this week to discuss limiting the war’s economic impact on Americans, while stock markets across Asia declined on the news.
Military Briefing Triggers Market Volatility
According to Axios, US Central Command has prepared plans for a wave of ‘short and powerful’ strikes on Iran, likely targeting infrastructure, with anonymous sources indicating President Trump will receive a briefing on these military options [1]. The market response was immediate and dramatic, with Brent crude reaching £94 (approximately $126) per barrel in Asian trade on Tuesday, 28 April 2026, before settling around $116 during European trading hours [1]. This represents the highest oil prices since 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine [1].
Economic Pressure Mounts on Both Sides of Atlantic
The escalating tensions have created significant economic headwinds, with energy executives meeting President Trump on Tuesday, 28 April 2026, to discuss strategies for limiting the war’s impact on US consumers [1]. Investment manager Will Walker-Arnott from Raymond James captured the administration’s dilemma, stating: ‘The big question in my mind is how long the Trump administration can stand the economic heat. People are really beginning to worry about the inflationary impact coming through from the rise in the oil price’ [1]. Stock markets reflected this uncertainty, with Japan’s Nikkei falling 1.1% and South Korea’s Kospi dropping 1.4%, whilst European markets showed mixed results with London’s FTSE 100 rising 1% but France’s Cac declining 0.6% [1].
UK Consumers Face Mounting Fuel Costs
British motorists are experiencing the sharp end of these geopolitical developments, with petrol prices averaging 157p per litre - an increase of 24p compared to pre-war levels [1]. Diesel prices have risen even more dramatically, reaching 188.5p per litre, representing a 46p increase from before the Iran conflict began [1]. However, recent market movements have provided some relief for diesel users, with pump prices falling 3p per litre in recent days [1]. Simon Williams, RAC’s head of policy, explained the complex dynamics affecting fuel pricing: ‘Our analysis of wholesale costs shows petrol is now more expensive for retailers to buy than at any time since the war began. However diesel, which has come down by 3p a litre, is currently well below its highest wholesale price since the start of the conflict, so should fall further’ [1].
Regional Impacts and Broader Economic Consequences
The energy crisis extends beyond fuel costs, with the UK government warning citizens to expect higher prices for energy, food, and flight tickets as a direct result of the ongoing conflict [1]. Airlines have already begun implementing fare increases and reducing flight schedules, whilst fertiliser prices are climbing, threatening to drive up food costs across the supply chain [1]. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, creating a critical bottleneck in global energy supplies [1]. Williams noted the seasonal factors affecting fuel markets: ‘The market for petrol tends to increase in the spring as people in the US begin to drive more, whereas the price of diesel often reduces as Western Europe’s use of heating oil, which is made from the same part of the barrel, lessens as the temperature warms up’ [1]. For communities in regions like Turkana County in Kenya, these price increases could significantly impact transportation costs and the price of essential goods, affecting both refugee populations and host communities who rely on affordable fuel for basic services and economic activities [GPT].