African Union Calls for Dialogue as Somalia Faces Political Crisis
Somalia, 29 March 2026
The African Union has issued an urgent appeal for restraint as Somalia experiences escalating tensions that threaten regional stability. The crisis centres on a dramatic political breakdown, with the South West state government severing ties with Somalia’s Federal Government amid disputes over centralised power and election plans. This unprecedented political fracture could significantly impact thousands of Somali refugees across East Africa who are closely monitoring developments for potential repatriation decisions, whilst also raising concerns about security deterioration in the Horn of Africa region.
Federal Government Confronts Regional Resistance
The political crisis erupted on 17 March 2026 when the South West state government formally cut ties with Somalia’s Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) [1]. This dramatic escalation followed the FGS’s declaration on 22 March that the South West state government’s term had expired [1]. The federal government subsequently imposed severe restrictions, grounding both domestic and international flights to South West on 15 March [1], whilst establishing parallel governments in Bakool region and the districts of Hudur and Wajid between 24-25 March [1]. The confrontation intensified when South West state forces reportedly interdicted an FGS plane on 23 March [1], demonstrating the depth of institutional breakdown between the two levels of government.
Constitutional Changes Fuel Opposition Coalition
The constitutional crisis stems from controversial changes approved by the FGS on 4 March 2026, which extended Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term by one year and instituted direct parliamentary elections [1]. These unilateral decisions prompted the resignation of the Jubbaland State Party (JSP) secretary-general on 25 March, citing disapproval of the FGS’s centralisation of power and unilateral election plans [1]. The South West could now align with the leading national opposition coalition against the FGS, a development that analysts warn would significantly increase the scale of likely election disputes and political violence in 2026 and 2027 [1]. The timing is particularly critical as the commission stated on 26 March that state parliamentary elections would occur by 29 March [1], though this deadline appears to have passed without resolution.
Security Concerns Mount Amid Political Vacuum
The political deadlock has created dangerous security vulnerabilities that could affect regional stability and refugee populations. On 24 March 2026, Baidoa Online reported that Al-Shabaab had increased its presence on the crucial Baidoa-Mogadishu road near Baidoa [1], exploiting the institutional chaos between federal and state authorities. This development is particularly concerning given that the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) has been actively engaged in counter-terrorism operations, with forces killing over 40 Al-Shabaab militants whilst defending Mubarak on 26 March [2]. The mission, which officially began operations on 1 January 2025 with approximately 11,911 personnel [3], recently assumed control of Operating Base SHAND from British forces on 28 March to bolster operational capacity [4].
Regional Implications for Refugee Communities
The escalating tensions carry significant implications for the thousands of Somali refugees across East Africa who monitor political developments for repatriation decisions [GPT]. The breakdown in federal-state relations, combined with increased Al-Shabaab activity, creates uncertainty about Somalia’s stability trajectory at a time when the African Union Commission Chairperson has called for dialogue and restraint [5]. The crisis also risks undermining AUSSOM’s stabilisation efforts, as weak coordination among contributing countries due to differing priorities has already resulted in delays and security gaps that Al-Shabaab has exploited [3]. Ambassador El-Hadji Ibrahima Diene, AUSSOM’s head, has emphasised that synergy between the African Union, the Federal Government of Somalia, and international partners remains the cornerstone for achieving sustainable peace [4], though current political fractures threaten this collaborative framework essential for long-term stability and eventual refugee repatriation.