Coffee Prices Jump 2.3% as Middle East Conflict Disrupts Global Supply Chains
Nairobi, 13 April 2026
Global coffee prices surged in March 2026, ending three months of decline as Middle East conflicts and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz from 4th March drove up transport costs. The International Coffee Organization reports prices reached 234.09 cents per pound, with Brazilian natural coffee exports plummeting 25% whilst global green bean exports fell 9% year-on-year.
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Market Volatility
The March price surge represents a significant reversal after three consecutive months of declining coffee prices [1]. The International Coffee Organization attributed this increase to what it termed a ‘geopolitical shock’ linked directly to ongoing Middle East conflicts [1]. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz from 4th March proved particularly disruptive, as this critical shipping route handles a substantial portion of global energy supplies, thereby escalating both transport and energy costs across international markets [1].
Supply Chain Disruptions Impact Global Exports
The effects of these geopolitical tensions extended beyond price movements to tangible supply disruptions. Global exports of green coffee beans totalled 9.79 million 60-kilogram bags in February, representing a sharp 9 per cent decline compared to the same period the previous year [1]. Brazilian natural coffee exports bore the brunt of this downturn, with sales plummeting by 25.1 per cent to 2.5 million bags [1]. Meanwhile, Robusta coffee exports also declined, falling 3.7 per cent to 4.05 million bags during the same period [1].
Variety-Specific Price Movements Reveal Market Dynamics
Different coffee varieties experienced varying degrees of price pressure during March. Colombian soft coffee increased by 2 per cent compared to February levels, reaching 288.74 cents per pound [1]. Brazilian natural coffee saw more pronounced gains, rising 3.9 per cent to 274.23 cents per pound [1]. These price differentials reflect both supply constraints and regional market dynamics, with Brazilian coffee facing particular pressure due to the substantial export reductions experienced during this period.
Long-Term Production Risks Emerge
Beyond immediate price impacts, the International Coffee Organization has identified potential threats to future coffee production capabilities [1]. The organisation warns that continued interruptions to fertiliser supplies could significantly impact coffee cultivation across producing regions [1]. This concern adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile market, suggesting that current price pressures may persist well beyond the resolution of immediate geopolitical tensions. For East African households and refugee communities who depend on affordable coffee as both an export commodity and daily staple, these sustained price increases could continue to strain already limited household budgets throughout 2026 [GPT].