Former Enemies Unite Against Ruto as Kenya's Opposition Forms Unlikely Alliance

2026-05-17 region

Nairobi, 17 May 2026
Kenya’s political landscape is experiencing a dramatic transformation as former adversaries forge an unprecedented coalition against President William Ruto. The most striking example: Edwin Sifuna, who once faced tear gas from then-Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, now welcomes him as an ally, declaring ‘if he’s the one who will help us wrestle the enemy, then so be it.’ This remarkable shift follows Raila Odinga’s death in October 2025 and Gachagua’s impeachment in 2024, creating space for new political configurations. Opinion polls suggest this strategy may be working, with Ruto’s support at just 24% whilst opposition combinations poll significantly higher. The upcoming Ol Kalou by-election in July will test these new alliances as traditional party loyalties dissolve into pragmatic partnerships aimed at securing victory in 2027.

The Wantam Movement Gains Momentum

The emerging coalition, dubbed the ‘Wantam’ movement, represents one of Kenya’s most significant political realignments in recent history [1]. This unlikely alliance brings together leaders who were previously irreconcilable opponents, united by a shared determination to prevent what they view as the fragmentation that would preserve the current administration [1]. The movement has gained particular traction following the death of ODM leader Raila Odinga in October 2025 [1], which created a leadership vacuum that has been filled by this new configuration of political forces. The coalition’s strength lies in its pragmatic approach to politics, with leaders acknowledging past conflicts whilst focusing on their shared objective of challenging President Ruto’s hold on power.

Strategic Partnerships Emerge from Past Rivalries

The transformation in relationships has been particularly dramatic amongst key political figures. Embakasi MP Babu Owino, who previously labelled Rigathi Gachagua the ‘face of tribalism’, now refers to him as ‘father’ [1]. Similarly, Siaya Governor James Orengo, who led Gachagua’s impeachment charges in 2025, now praises the former Deputy President [1]. This represents a complete reversal from Orengo’s previous position that protecting specific ethnic group interests was unconstitutional [1]. Edwin Sifuna, leader of the Linda Mwananchi faction of ODM, captured the pragmatic nature of these alliances when he stated on 10 May 2026: ‘Even Rigathi Gachagua would wake up at 6am and hurl tear gas at us when we were with Baba. But if he’s the one who will help us wrestle the enemy, then so be it. Matiangi can hold the other leg’ [1].

United Alternative Government Coalition Takes Shape

The formal structure of the opposition has crystallised in the United Alternative Government coalition, which includes Jubilee, the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), Wiper Patriotic Front led by Kalonzo Musyoka, People’s Liberation Party headed by Martha Karua, DAP-Kenya under Eugene Wamalwa and George Natembeya, and the Democratic Party with Justin Muturi [2]. This broad coalition represents a significant departure from Kenya’s traditionally fragmented opposition landscape. However, internal tensions have already emerged, particularly regarding candidate selection protocols. The upcoming Ol Kalou by-election, scheduled for 16 July 2026, has become a proxy battleground exposing these fissures [2]. Jubilee’s Zack Kinuthia has accused Gachagua’s DCP of violating zoning agreements by fielding a candidate in a constituency where the late MP was a Jubilee member [2].

Polling Data Reveals Shifting Political Fortunes

Recent TIFA polling data suggests the opposition strategy may be yielding results, with President Ruto’s support having declined to approximately 24% [1][5]. The polls indicate that a Kalonzo Musyoka-Fred Matiang’i ticket commands 31% support, whilst a Kalonzo-Sifuna pairing draws 28% [1]. These figures represent a dramatic shift from the 2022 elections, when Ruto secured nearly 50% of his total votes from the Mt Kenya region [5]. The polling breakdown shows Kalonzo at 19%, Fred Matiang’i at 14%, Edwin Sifuna at 10%, and Gachagua at 9% individually [5]. Within ODM specifically, Edwin Sifuna and James Orengo command 73% support compared to 24% for Oburu Oginga’s pro-Ruto leadership [5]. This data underscores the significant challenge facing the incumbent president as the 2027 elections approach.

Implications for Kenya’s Refugee Communities

The political realignment carries important implications for Kenya’s substantial refugee population, who depend on stable governance for continued protection and essential services [GPT]. Political instability or uncertainty around election periods can affect border security arrangements and the continuity of humanitarian programmes [GPT]. The opposition’s criticism of current government policies and their promise of alternative approaches could influence refugee policy frameworks, particularly regarding camp management, integration programmes, and protection mechanisms [GPT]. Given Kenya’s role as a major refugee-hosting nation in East Africa, any significant shift in government priorities or administrative capacity could impact service delivery to vulnerable populations who rely on consistent policy implementation and international cooperation [GPT].

Bronnen

Kenya politics opposition coalition