UAE Exits OPEC After Nearly 60 Years as Regional Tensions Mount
Abu Dhabi, 28 April 2026
The United Arab Emirates has formally withdrawn from OPEC and OPEC+, effective 1st May 2026, marking the end of its membership since 1967. As the cartel’s third-largest producer with 4.8 million barrels per day capacity, the UAE’s departure significantly weakens OPEC’s market power during ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts involving Iran. The move comes as Gulf producers struggle with Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions, through which 20% of global crude oil normally passes. Energy analysts warn this could signal the beginning of OPEC’s fragmentation, with Saudi Arabia now bearing greater responsibility for price stability alone while other members may follow suit.
Strategic Decision Amid Production Constraints
The UAE’s energy ministry announced the withdrawal on Tuesday, 28th April 2026, describing it as following “a comprehensive review of the UAE’s production policy and its current and future capacity” based on “national interest” and commitment to “meeting the market’s pressing needs” [1]. Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei emphasised this was “a policy decision” taken “after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production” [2]. The decision was made without consulting other OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia [2]. The UAE’s state-owned ADNOC currently operates at 4.85 million barrels per day capacity, with ambitious plans to reach 5.0 million barrels per day by 2027, supported by a substantial USD 150 billion investment programme for 2023-2027 [3].
Market Impact and Production Flexibility
As OPEC’s third-largest producer in February 2026, behind only Saudi Arabia and Iraq [1], the UAE’s departure removes approximately 15% of the cartel’s total production capacity [4]. The move grants the UAE significantly greater flexibility to boost oil production without being constrained by OPEC quotas, particularly crucial given current market conditions [2][4]. Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy’s head of geopolitical analysis, warned that “losing a member with 4.8 million barrels per day of capacity, and the ambition to produce more, takes a real tool out of the group’s hands” [2]. He noted that “with demand nearing a peak, the calculation for producers with low-cost barrels is changing fast, and waiting your turn inside a quota system starts to look like leaving money on the table” [2].
Geopolitical Tensions and Regional Dynamics
The timing of the UAE’s exit coincides with heightened regional instability, particularly the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran that has severely disrupted Gulf shipping routes [2]. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes, faces significant operational challenges due to threats and attacks linked to the conflict [2]. This has left Gulf producers, including the UAE, struggling to maintain normal export operations [2]. The departure also reflects growing UAE-Saudi rivalry, particularly following the breakdown of their joint coalition against Iran-backed Houthi rebels after a Saudi bombing incident in late December 2025 [2]. Dr Carole Nakhle, chief executive of Crystol Energy, suggested the decision “has been a long time in the making” [4].
Implications for OPEC’s Future Cohesion
Energy analysts view the UAE’s departure as potentially signalling broader fragmentation within OPEC, with Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial, describing it as “the beginning of the end” [4]. Kavonic warned that “Saudi Arabia will struggle to keep the rest of OPEC together, and effectively have to do most of the heavy lifting regarding internal compliance and market management on its own” [4]. The analyst noted this represents “a fundamental geopolitical reshaping of the Middle East and oil markets” [4]. Leon emphasised that “Saudi Arabia is now left doing more of the heavy lifting on price stability, and the market loses one of the few shock absorbers it had left” [2]. Iraq, however, has confirmed through officials speaking to Reuters that Baghdad has no intention of following the UAE’s example, preferring “a strong organisation to ensure oil prices remain at stable and acceptable levels” [3].