Kenya Weather Alert: Scattered Showers Hit Western Regions This Week
Nairobi, 31 January 2026
Kenya’s meteorological department predicts light to moderate rainfall across Nyanza and South Rift regions from today through 4 February 2026, with temperatures ranging dramatically from 8°C in highland areas to 38°C in northwestern counties. The forecast affects millions across counties including Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, and parts of the Rift Valley, whilst Nairobi remains largely dry with moderate conditions.
Regional Rainfall Distribution Patterns
The Kenya Meteorological Department forecasts scattered rainfall across specific counties within the Nyanza and South Rift regions, including Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, Migori, and parts of Kisii and Nyamira counties from 31 January to 4 February 2026 [1]. Western and Rift Valley counties, encompassing Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Kericho, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Nakuru, Narok and Baringo, are also expected to receive rain during this period [1]. The rainfall is projected to remain light to moderate, with no indication of prolonged or widespread downpours throughout the five-day forecast window [1].
Temperature Extremes Across Kenya
Maximum temperatures are forecast to range between 30°C and 33°C across the affected regions, whilst minimum temperatures could drop to as low as 8°C in some highland areas [1]. The temperature differential creates a stark contrast with north-western counties including Turkana, Samburu, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo, which are set to experience sunny intervals with day temperatures reaching as high as 38°C [1]. These conditions represent a significant 30 degree temperature variation across different regions of the country during the same period.
Nairobi and Eastern Highlands Outlook
Nairobi and other counties in the highlands east of the Rift Valley, including Kiambu, Nyeri, Murang’a, Laikipia, Meru, Embu, and Kirinyaga, are expected to have mostly dry conditions [1]. The capital and surrounding counties are expected to be partly cloudy at night, with minimum temperatures of 5-8°C and daytime temperatures of 31-33°C [1]. South-eastern lowlands encompassing Kitui, Makueni, Machakos, Kajiado, and Taita Taveta are expected to remain largely dry with sunny days and partly cloudy nights [1].
Implications for Refugee Communities
The weather patterns particularly affect areas near Kakuma camp in Turkana County, where refugees should prepare for potential temperature variations and possible rainfall that could impact daily activities and water collection schedules [GPT]. The dry and hot conditions are expected to continue in Turkana County, with daytime temperatures as high as 38°C and nighttime temperatures around 17°C [1]. Coastal counties such as Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, and Lamu will experience sunny intervals with warm and humid conditions, with no rainfall expected during this period [1]. These diverse weather conditions across Kenya’s regions require tailored preparation strategies for different communities, particularly those in refugee settlements where infrastructure may be more vulnerable to temperature extremes.