Kenya's Largest County Pioneers Climate-Health Research Initiative
Lodwar, 3 February 2026
Turkana County, Kenya’s second-largest territory spanning 77,000 square kilometres, has launched groundbreaking research to combat climate-driven health crises using artificial intelligence forecasting systems.
AI-Powered Health Surge Prediction
On 2 February 2026, the Turkana County Department of Health and Sanitation hosted researchers from the Centre for Humanitarian Change (CHC) led by Dr. Anne Khisa to present a research proposal under the Health System Resilience to Climate-related Surges (HERCS) Project [1]. The initiative, running from 2025 to 2026, represents a pioneering approach to health crisis management in Kenya’s arid and semi-arid regions [1]. The HERCS project employs artificial intelligence tools to estimate the likelihood of future health surges, creating an early warning system for climate-driven medical emergencies [1]. This technological advancement addresses a critical gap in preparedness for sudden increases in illness and health service demand that frequently overwhelm both health facilities and communities in the region [1].
Three-Pillar Strategy for Health Resilience
The HERCS project operates through three strategic pillars designed to strengthen Turkana’s health infrastructure against climate shocks [1]. The first pillar focuses on strengthening health facilities, whilst the second concentrates on community health systems [1]. The third pillar represents the project’s most innovative aspect: forecasting health surges using artificial intelligence technology [1]. Dr. Anne Khisa highlighted the urgent need for such measures, noting rising cases of malaria, diarrhoea, respiratory infections, and malnutrition due to climate change in Turkana County [1]. The research team’s approach recognises that climate shocks often cause sudden surges in people’s health-seeking behaviour, which without adequate preparedness can overwhelm local health systems [1].
Community-Centred Implementation Approach
The project’s implementation strategy emphasises community engagement and stakeholder collaboration through planned workshops and interviews [1]. Community and facility workshops form a cornerstone of the initiative, alongside interviews with county and sub-county officials, NGOs, and national agencies [1]. The programme also includes joint analysis and validation of findings with stakeholders, ensuring that developed tools remain practical and locally relevant [1]. This collaborative approach aims to create practical tools with communities and health workers to anticipate and respond to climate-driven health shocks [1]. The expected outcomes include improved early warning information and empowered health workers and communities better equipped to handle climate-related health emergencies [1].
Regional Impact for Host and Refugee Communities
The initiative carries particular significance for Turkana County, which hosts both vulnerable local communities and refugee populations in one of Kenya’s most climate-sensitive regions [1]. The project’s focus extends beyond Turkana to include Marsabit County, creating a regional approach to climate health resilience [1]. Dr. Khisa emphasised that the project aims to create practical tools with communities and health workers to anticipate and respond to climate-driven health shocks [1]. The Health and Resilience Consortium behind HERCS will study drivers of sudden increases in illness and health service use, drawing on climate, health, and other data sources [1]. This comprehensive approach recognises that climate change impacts affect both host communities and displaced populations equally, requiring coordinated responses that protect lives from worsened malnutrition and infectious diseases across these vulnerable populations [1].