Global Oil Prices Surge Following Collapse of US-Iran Ceasefire
Nairobi, 8 July 2026
Global oil prices surged by seven per cent after US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran over, sparking fears of rising fuel and commodity costs worldwide.
The Geopolitical Spark in Ankara
The sudden collapse of diplomatic efforts came to a head on Wednesday, 8 July 2026, at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey [1]. Speaking to reporters at approximately 09:15 BST, US President Donald Trump declared that the ceasefire with Iran is officially ‘over’ [1]. When questioned whether the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed just last month was dead, Trump confirmed his stance, describing Iranian leaders as ‘scum’ and ‘liars’ [1][2]. Although he noted that US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner remain willing to talk, he dismissed further diplomatic engagements as a ‘waste of time’ [1]. This sharp rhetorical turn followed intense overnight military strikes traded between the United States and Iran, abruptly ending a brief period of relative stability [1][3].
Strait of Hormuz Disruptions and Market Reaction
The diplomatic fallout was preceded by physical disruptions in critical maritime corridors. On Tuesday, 7 July 2026, Iranian forces attacked three vessels in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, targeting both an oil tanker and a liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier [3]. In response, global oil markets reacted violently; ICE Brent crude prices rose by more than 3% on 6 July and a further 2.8% on 7 July, surpassing $76 per barrel [3]. Following President Trump’s subsequent Wednesday morning declarations, global oil prices surged by seven per cent as international stock markets fell, shifting the front end of the oil curve from contango to backwardation [3][GPT]. This price surge occurred during a highly vulnerable period for European energy security, with natural gas prices climbing above EUR 48 per megawatt-hour (MWh) on 8 July 2026, while gas storage levels sat at less than 51% capacity—representing a deficit of 15 percentage points compared to the five-year seasonal average of 66% [3].