South Sudan Peace Deal Faces Collapse as Monitors Record 407 Ceasefire Violations

2026-02-20 region

Juba, 20 February 2026
International monitors have dramatically reduced their presence in South Sudan after recording 407 ceasefire violations in just six months, warning the 2018 peace agreement is under ‘significant strain’. The monitoring body cut teams from six to three due to funding shortages, closing offices in Bentiu and Yambio whilst violence escalates across four states. Sexual violence against women and children has surged, with aerial bombardments potentially violating international humanitarian law. The crisis threatens over 370,000 displaced civilians and complicates repatriation plans for South Sudanese refugees in neighbouring countries.

Monitoring Capacity Slashed as Violence Escalates

The Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring and Verification Mechanism (CTSAMVM) announced on Thursday, 19 February 2026, that severe funding constraints have forced a dramatic reduction in its operational capacity [1][2]. As of January 2026, monitoring teams were cut from six to three, with field offices in Bentiu and Yambio permanently closed [1][3]. The remaining monitors must now cover expanded geographic zones from just three main bases in Juba, Malakal, and Wau [1][4]. This downsizing comes at a critical juncture, as CTSAMVM recorded 407 alleged ceasefire violations between August 2025 and January 2026 alone [1][2][3]. Major General Teshome Anagawe Ayana, CTSAMVM Chairperson, warned during the Technical Committee meeting in Juba that ‘the peace process is under significant strain’ [1][2].

March 2025 Nasir Incident Marks Turning Point

The violence in Nasir, Upper Nile State, in March 2025 has been identified as a pivotal moment that fundamentally altered South Sudan’s security landscape [1][3]. Prior to the Nasir clashes between the South Sudan People’s Defence Force (SSPDF) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-in-Opposition (SPLA-IO), direct hostilities between signatory parties had been relatively limited [2]. Since then, insecurity has expanded across Upper Nile, Unity, Western Bahr el Ghazal, and Jonglei states, with serious implications for the implementation of the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) [2][3]. The security environment has become so restrictive that monitoring operations, particularly in Nasir and parts of Upper Nile, now face high-risk conditions that prevent timely verification of violations [5][6].

Civilian Impact and Humanitarian Crisis Deepens

The deteriorating security situation has had devastating consequences for South Sudan’s civilian population, with over 370,000 people displaced between March and October 2025 [4]. More recently, fighting from 29 December 2025 to 9 January 2026 displaced over 100,000 people in Jonglei State alone [4]. Reports indicate potential aerial bombardments in Jonglei and Upper Nile states, which, if confirmed, would constitute severe breaches of both the permanent ceasefire and international humanitarian law [2][3]. Sexual and gender-based violence, particularly against women and children, has reached alarming levels, with Major General Ayana describing the ‘extreme violence on young children, women and girls as unacceptable’ [3][5]. Movement restrictions arising from insecurity and illegal checkpoints continue to impede humanitarian access and civilian livelihoods, undermining the stabilisation objectives of the peace agreement [2].

Implementation Challenges and Political Tensions

The peace agreement’s implementation faces significant structural challenges beyond the immediate security concerns. The Joint Military Ceasefire Commission failed to approve several monthly activity plans throughout 2025 and early 2026, limiting predictable implementation of CTSAMVM’s mandate [1]. The Joint Defence Board has not responded to a December 2025 request regarding the status of unified force training and deployment [6]. Political tensions are escalating due to the arrest of opposition members and the ongoing trial of First Vice-President Dr. Riek Machar [4]. The transitional period has been extended until February 2027, with national elections now scheduled for December 2026 [4]. The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan warned in October 2025 that the ‘political transition [was] falling apart’ and cautioned of a ‘renewed slide into full-scale conflict unless urgent international action is taken’ [4].

Bronnen

South Sudan peace ceasefire monitoring