Kenya Urged to Ratify Nile Basin Agreement as Sudan's War Reshapes Regional Water Politics
Nairobi, 12 February 2026
Kenya faces mounting pressure to ratify the Cooperative Framework Agreement it signed in 2010, as Sudan’s ongoing civil war fundamentally alters Nile Basin dynamics. With seven riparian states already ratified, Kenya’s holdout position becomes increasingly significant whilst Egypt leverages Sudan’s collapse to strengthen its traditional water dominance. The ratification would establish Kenya as a leader in basin-wide cooperation and unlock joint infrastructure projects.
Sudan’s Collapse Strengthens Egypt’s Water Dominance
The war in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has fundamentally reconfigured the hydro-political landscape of the Nile Basin [1]. The conflict has displaced more than 12 million people and effectively terminated Sudan’s previous pivot towards supporting Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and broader Nile modernisation efforts [1]. This collapse has provided Egypt with strategic relief, reinforcing its traditional hydro-political dominance by disabling what had become a potential midstream balancer in basin negotiations [1]. The 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement had previously institutionalised a downstream duopoly, allocating the river’s flow primarily to Egypt and Sudan whilst marginalising upstream states [1][2]. With Sudan’s neutrality in the GERD dispute, which it had declared by 2014, now effectively ended due to internal warfare, Egypt’s diplomatic narrative has been strengthened considerably [1].
Kenya’s Strategic Position in Basin Politics
Kenya signed the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) in 2010 but paused ratification efforts in 2018 due to tensions with Egypt [2]. Seven riparian states have already ratified the CFA, which promotes principles of equitable water use, prevention of significant harm to neighbours, open data sharing, and plans for establishing a permanent Nile River Basin Commission (NRBC) [2]. The agreement would allow Kenya to participate fully in the NRBC, influence hydrological standards across the basin, and strengthen its alliance with Ethiopia, particularly concerning the GERD project [2]. Kenya’s position becomes increasingly significant as Ethiopia contributes roughly 85 percent of the Blue Nile’s volume, making upstream cooperation essential for regional water security [1]. The CFA’s emphasis on equitable use directly challenges the colonial-era agreements that concentrated control downstream, offering Kenya greater influence over water resources that include its rivers—the Yala, Nyando, Migori, and Mara—which feed into the White Nile system through Lake Victoria [2].
Climate Pressures Highlight Water Cooperation Needs
Kenya’s recent climate experiences underscore the urgent need for enhanced basin cooperation. The 2022-2023 drought significantly affected Lake Victoria, impacting fisheries and power grids, whilst 2020 floods displaced thousands of people in the Nyando Valley [2]. These extreme weather events demonstrate the vulnerability of Kenya’s water-dependent sectors and the critical importance of coordinated basin management. Ratification would position Kenya to better leverage international funding for water infrastructure projects and integrate Ethiopian hydropower with Kenyan markets as part of Vision 2030 [2]. The agreement’s focus on data sharing would provide Kenya with better early warning systems for both droughts and floods, particularly benefiting western counties where water security directly affects both economic development and humanitarian outcomes.
Regional Implications for Refugee and Host Communities
The ratification decision carries particular significance for regions like Turkana County, where water resources are critical for both refugee populations and host communities [GPT]. Kenya’s enhanced participation in basin-wide water management could improve water security planning for areas hosting displaced populations, including those near Kakuma where resources remain under constant pressure [GPT]. As the Nile Basin Initiative continues facilitating joint infrastructure improvements, including weather monitoring upgrades and ecosystem restoration projects, ratification would elevate these collaborative efforts to benefit vulnerable communities across the region [GPT]. The establishment of a permanent NRBC would provide a institutional framework for addressing water-related displacement and ensuring that basin development projects consider the needs of both refugees and host populations. With tensions in Sudan likely to persist, Kenya’s leadership in basin cooperation becomes essential for maintaining regional stability and ensuring equitable access to water resources for all communities dependent on the Nile system.