UAE Cargo Flights to Ethiopian Military Bases Raise Questions Amid Sudan War
Addis Ababa, 21 January 2026
A cargo aircraft previously linked to weapons deliveries has conducted multiple flights between UAE, Israeli, and Ethiopian military installations this January, coinciding with escalating Gulf rivalry over Sudan’s civil war. The flights to Ethiopia’s Harar Meda base occur as the UAE repositions assets after losing influence in Yemen and Somalia to Saudi Arabia, while both Gulf powers back opposing sides in Sudan’s devastating conflict that began in April 2023.
Tracked Flight Patterns Reveal Strategic Repositioning
The cargo aircraft UR-ZYD, previously connected to weapons supplies for UAE-backed fighters in Sudan and Libya, conducted a series of flights to Ethiopian military installations throughout January 2026 [1]. On 3 January, the aircraft flew from Abu Dhabi to Harar Meda, Ethiopia, and returned the same day [1]. The pattern repeated on 12 January and 15 January, with an additional flight to Addis Ababa on 17 January [1]. Prior to these Ethiopian operations, UR-ZYD made three round trips between Bahrain’s Sheikh Isa Air Base and Israel’s Ovda base on 28, 29, and 31 December 2025 [1]. These flight patterns have raised concerns among analysts, with Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab noting that evidence of an An-124 aircraft making repeated sorties between Abu Dhabi and an airfield near areas of increased RSF presence ‘should be of global concern’ [1].
Gulf Rivalry Reshapes Regional Alliances
The flights occur against the backdrop of an intensifying power struggle between the UAE and Saudi Arabia across Yemen and the Horn of Africa [1]. Saudi Arabia’s victory over the UAE in Yemen in late 2025 has strengthened Riyadh’s regional credibility, with analyst Jalel Harchaoui noting that Saudi Arabia is now ‘spending aggressively to alter the trajectory of the Sudan war’ [1]. The Saudi-led forces struck Emirati vessels in Mukalla, Yemen, in late December 2025, allegedly carrying weapons for the Southern Transitional Council [3]. This setback has forced the UAE to withdraw from its key military base in Bosaso, Somalia, after the Somali government cancelled agreements with the UAE on 12 January 2026, accusing Abu Dhabi of undermining its sovereignty [3]. Ethiopia has emerged as the UAE’s new strategic partner, with Emirati personnel being redeployed there after losing ground in Somalia [1].
Sudan War Becomes Proxy Battleground
The war in Sudan, which began in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has become firmly entrenched in this Gulf rivalry [1][3]. The UAE has been accused of supporting the RSF, which has been accused of genocide in Darfur [1]. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, alongside Egypt and Turkey, is increasing military support for the SAF to counter UAE influence [1]. Pakistani officials reported advanced negotiations on a $1.5 billion defence package for the Sudanese Armed Forces, including JF-17 Block III fighters, K-8 attack aircraft, and over 200 drones, with the deal being brokered and possibly financed by Riyadh [1][3]. The Egyptian air force has recently struck weapons convoys originating in Libya heading to the Sudan border to resupply the RSF, leading to the temporary closure of the Kufra airbase [3].
Humanitarian Crisis Deepens Amid Regional Competition
The escalating proxy conflict has created what the UN describes as the world’s largest humanitarian and displacement crisis [5]. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk stated on 15 January 2026 that Sudan has been pushed into ‘an abyss of unimaginable dimensions’ [5]. Despite being accused of fuelling the conflict through RSF support, the UAE announced on 21 January 2026 that it would provide an additional $5 million to the Sudan Humanitarian Fund through the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs [5]. Since 2015, the UAE has provided $4.24 billion in assistance to Sudan, with $784 million allocated in humanitarian aid since 2023 [5]. However, the continued military support for opposing factions threatens to prolong a conflict that has already displaced millions of Sudanese civilians, with neighbouring countries like Ethiopia bearing the burden of hosting refugees while simultaneously becoming more deeply involved in the military dimensions of the crisis.