Pakistan and Afghanistan Enter 'Open War' as Cross-Border Strikes Escalate Regional Crisis
Kabul, 28 February 2026
Pakistan’s Defence Minister declared ‘open war’ with Afghanistan following deadly cross-border attacks that began on 21 February 2026. Pakistan bombed over 20 locations including Kabul and Kandahar, whilst Afghanistan retaliated with drone strikes on Pakistani military targets. The conflict marks the most significant escalation since 2021, with experts warning it could destabilise the broader Middle East region and provide opportunities for terrorist networks to flourish.
Military Capabilities and Escalating Violence
The military imbalance between the two nations is stark, yet Afghanistan’s guerrilla warfare expertise poses significant challenges. Pakistan commands 600,000 active personnel, more than 6,000 armoured vehicles, and hundreds of combat aircraft [2]. In contrast, the Taliban maintains fewer than 200,000 personnel with limited air capabilities [2]. However, Taliban forces have demonstrated tactical innovation, with security analyst Abdul Basit from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies warning that ‘the Afghan Taliban have drones, they have suicide bombers, they are innovative’ [1]. Pakistan’s casualty claims indicate the intensity of combat, with Islamabad asserting it killed 274 Afghan forces and affiliated militants, whilst Afghanistan claims to have killed 55 Pakistani soldiers [3]. The Taliban reported that Pakistan bombed defence targets resulting in 133 deaths on 27 February [5], whilst Pakistani forces claimed to have destroyed 27 Taliban border posts and captured nine others [5].
Humanitarian Crisis and Refugee Impact
The conflict has created severe humanitarian consequences, particularly affecting Afghan refugees who had sought safety in Pakistan. Pakistani authorities relocated dozens of Afghan refugees in the Torkham border area to safer locations as fighting intensified [3]. The broader refugee crisis has been exacerbated by Pakistan’s deportation policies, with approximately two million Afghans deported or fleeing since October 2023, including one million in 2025 alone [6]. Trade disruptions compound the suffering, as Pakistan has shut down the Torkham and Chaman border crossings since October 2025, only partially reopening them in December for UN aid [6]. The UN confirmed over thirteen civilian deaths and seven injuries from Pakistani airstrikes between 21:45 on 21 February and 00:15 on 22 February [5], whilst Taliban officials reported 18 civilian deaths, including 11 children, from strikes in Bihsud District, Nangarhar province [5].
Root Causes and Failed Diplomacy
The current crisis stems from Pakistan’s accusations that Afghanistan harbours the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), whilst Kabul maintains that its territory is not being used to threaten neighbouring countries [4]. The 2,600-kilometre border between the nations, known as the Durand Line, remains a source of contention as Afghanistan does not recognise this 1893 boundary [2]. Previous diplomatic efforts have proven ineffective, with Qatar and Turkey-mediated talks in Doha and Istanbul resulting only in fragile ceasefires [4]. Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir claimed in December 2025 that ‘70 per cent’ of TTP formations entering Pakistan were Afghan nationals [6], whilst more than 3,500 Pakistani security personnel and civilians have been killed in TTP attacks since 2021 [6]. The surge in militant violence represents a 34 per cent increase in 2025 compared to previous years [6].
Regional and Global Security Implications
Security analysts warn that the conflict creates conditions for terrorist networks to exploit regional instability. The Center for Strategic and International Studies noted in February 2026 that ‘the Pakistan-Taliban conflict provides international terrorist groups room to operate and increases the global terrorist threat’ [2]. Regional tensions are spreading, with reports indicating increasing instability in Iran near the Afghanistan-Pakistan fighting zone [1]. Pakistan’s possession of nuclear weapons adds a dangerous dimension to the conflict, though the Taliban’s fighting force of 172,000 represents less than one-third of Pakistan’s military personnel [1]. The breakdown of the October 2025 ceasefire agreement, which had provided temporary stability through Qatari mediation [1], has left the region without effective diplomatic mechanisms to prevent further escalation. As fighting typically lasts several days, experts fear that ‘further escalation could compound instability’ across the broader Middle East region [1].