Northern Kenya Faces Food Crisis as Drought Spreads to Refugee Camps
Turkana County, 28 January 2026
Historic rainfall failures across northern Kenya are pushing nearly one million people into crisis-level food insecurity, with conditions expected to worsen through May 2026. Turkana County, home to Kakuma refugee camp housing 748,000 refugees, faces particularly severe impacts as the failed October-December rains—which typically provide 70% of annual food production—combine with soaring temperatures. The crisis is rapidly expanding beyond current hotspots of Mandera, Marsabit, and Turkana to encompass six additional counties by February, forcing pastoral communities into atypical migrations and threatening malnutrition rates of up to 30% in affected areas.
From Training to Crisis: Agricultural Efforts Overshadowed by Drought
The current drought crisis represents a stark reversal for communities that had been building agricultural capacity through recent training programmes. As reported in a previous analysis of Turkana County’s agricultural initiatives (https://kakuma.laio.site/be3f599-agricultural-training-food-security/), the county had launched a comprehensive agricultural entrepreneurship programme, training 60 community leaders to boost food production across the 77,000-square-kilometre region. However, the exceptionally poor October-December rainfall has now rendered these efforts insufficient against the scale of the unfolding crisis [1]. The failed short rains season, which typically provides around 70 per cent of annual food production for marginal agricultural areas, has created conditions that threaten to overwhelm both the newly trained agricultural capacity and existing food systems [1].
Refugee Populations Bear Disproportionate Burden
Kenya’s refugee population has grown significantly to approximately 865,000 people, up from 505,000 in 2020, with 86 per cent (748,000) residing in Kakuma refugee camp in Turkana County and Dadaab refugee complex in Garissa County [2]. The timing of the drought could not be worse for these vulnerable populations, as funding constraints had already forced the World Food Programme to suspend cash transfers in July 2025 and modify in-kind food distribution in August 2025 [2]. From December 2025 through March 2026, WFP-provided food assistance is expected to support most refugees in meeting their minimum food needs in Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps and Kalobeyei refugee settlement, though this support comes against the backdrop of severely compromised regional food systems [1].
Crisis Spreads Across Northern Kenya
The geographical scope of the crisis is expanding rapidly beyond the initial affected areas. Crisis-level food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) is currently ongoing in Mandera, Marsabit, and Turkana as of 27 January 2026, but projections indicate the crisis will spread to Garissa, Tana River, and Wajir by January 2026, followed by Samburu and Isiolo by February 2026 [1]. The situation will deteriorate further with Crisis outcomes expected to spread to Kitui, Makueni, and Lamu by February 2026 [1]. These projections suggest that atypical migrations are expected to intensify between January 2026 and mid-March 2026, as pastoral communities move in search of water and grazing areas [1].
Malnutrition Crisis Threatens Vulnerable Populations
The nutritional implications of the drought are severe, with acute malnutrition prevalence expected to remain at Serious levels (Global Acute Malnutrition by Weight-for-Height Z-score of 10-14.9 per cent) to Critical levels (GAM WHZ 15-29.9 per cent) in pastoral areas through May 2026 [1]. This represents a substantial deterioration from recent improvements that had seen the number of food-insecure people drop to one million by August 2024, following above-average rainfall in three consecutive seasons [2]. The current crisis is particularly concerning given that households lost significant assets during the historic drought from late 2020 to early 2023, which peaked in February 2023 with 4.4 million Kenyans acutely food insecure, weakening their resilience to future shocks [2].
Timeline for Potential Recovery Extends to Mid-2026
Relief may not arrive until the March-May long rains begin in mid-March 2026, with gradual improvements in livestock body conditions and productivity, and movements to wet-season grazing areas expected from April 2026 onward [1]. However, the main harvests expected in February and March will be significantly below average, with localised crop failures anticipated [1]. Poor crop growth and production will also lower demand for harvesting labour, which typically peaks in February, further limiting income opportunities for vulnerable households [1]. At least one in five households in the newly affected counties of Kitui, Makueni, and Lamu will likely adopt consumption-based coping strategies starting in February and continuing through May, indicating the prolonged nature of the crisis ahead [1].