Gambian Opposition Movement Prepares for Political Party Status Ahead of 2026 Election
Banjul, 1 February 2026
The United Movement for Change plans formal transition to political party status as Gambia’s opposition landscape shifts dramatically before December 2026 presidential elections. Despite polling just 3% support weeks after launch, UMC remains confident whilst survey data reveals 66% of Gambians disapprove of President Barrow’s leadership and 60% are dissatisfied with economic management. With 30% identifying as independent voters and traditional opposition UDP polling only 14.7%, the political environment remains highly fluid. UMC has established offices nationwide and built grassroots structures, positioning itself as a credible alternative offering fresh leadership and national renewal in a fragmented opposition seeking coalition unity.
UMC’s Strategic Transformation and Nationwide Expansion
Ebrima Dibba, Deputy National Organizing Secretary of the United Movement for Change, announced this week that preparations are already underway to transform the organisation into a formal political party [1]. Speaking in a video message, Mr. Dibba emphasised the movement’s expanding organisational footprint, stating that UMC now maintains offices across the country, from Kartong in the west to Koina in the east [1]. These offices are staffed largely by young men and women whom he described as committed, grounded, and capable [1]. The movement is currently strengthening its internal structures, with teams being organised at community, district, and regional levels to manage its affairs [1]. Mr. Dibba positioned the transformation as a response to growing public demand for change, telling supporters: “What we will tell the Gambian people is that it is time for change. It is time to take this movement and allow it to govern this country — to wipe the tears of Gambians and give them what they want” [1].
Survey Results Reveal Fluid Political Landscape
Despite being barely three months old at the time of the survey, UMC recorded 3% support in the CepRASS poll conducted in November 2025 [2][3]. MC Cham Jr., commenting on the survey results, described this as “a significant achievement given the movement’s infancy” and noted that “the survey was conducted just weeks after the movement’s launch, before formal party registration and nationwide visibility” [2]. The poll, which measured voting intentions if elections were held in November 2025, showed the ruling National People’s Party (NPP) and its alliance commanding 34% support [2]. However, the most striking outcome was the 30% of respondents who identified as independent voters, which MC Cham highlighted as the decisive bloc [2]. The traditional opposition United Democratic Party (UDP) polled 14.7%, with MC Cham suggesting the figures point to growing voter fatigue within the traditional opposition space [2].
Public Dissatisfaction with Current Leadership
The CepRASS data revealed widespread dissatisfaction with President Barrow’s leadership, with 66% of Gambians disapproving of his performance [3]. Economic management emerged as a particular area of concern, with 60% expressing dissatisfaction with the president’s handling of the economy [3]. Furthermore, 66% hold a negative view of his willingness to fight corruption, whilst 69% do not trust him to do what is best for the country [3]. The government’s overall performance fared poorly, with 67% rating it as fairly bad to very bad, and 58% believing President Barrow’s performance is worse than previous presidents [3]. UMC spokesperson Kemo Bojang interpreted these findings as validation of the movement’s emergence, stating: “According to the findings, a clear majority of Gambians are unhappy with President Barrow’s leadership…the data clearly shows that the majority of Gambians are dissatisfied, disillusioned, and actively searching for credible alternatives” [3].
Opposition Unity Challenges and Coalition Prospects
The fragmented nature of Gambia’s opposition landscape has sparked debate about coalition building ahead of the December 2026 presidential election [4]. Dr Alieu SK Manjang has argued that coalition leadership should be based on measurable strengths such as past electoral performance, grassroots support, and financial capacity [6]. He questioned why smaller parties that have never won local elections present themselves as equals to established parties with hundreds of thousands of supporters [6]. Meanwhile, UMC has positioned itself as open to constructive engagement, with the movement believing that “democracy does not function through automatic alignment or political dominance; it thrives on ideas, dialogue, negotiation and mutual respect among actors who genuinely seek national progress” [3]. The movement launched nationwide chapters and mobilised tens of thousands of Gambians following the CepRASS survey [4], whilst maintaining that political relevance is measured by vision, credibility, and the ability to respond to people’s aspirations [3]. With more than 60% of Gambian voters not firmly aligned with any major political party according to the survey data, MC Cham concluded that “this election will be shaped by ideas, performance, organisation, and above all the ability to earn the trust of undecided voters” [2].