Kenya Faces Fuel Price Surge to £1.50 Per Litre as Middle East War Disrupts Global Supply
Nairobi, 1 April 2026
Former presidential advisor Moses Kuria predicts catastrophic fuel price increases reaching 230-250 Kenyan shillings per litre this April, driven by Iran’s restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz during the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict.
Economic Shock Predictions
Moses Kuria, former senior economic advisor to President William Ruto, delivered his stark assessment on 1 April 2026, declaring that ‘April will be the toughest and most brutal month of all times’ [1][3]. The prediction centres on what Kuria terms the ‘Hormuz effects of energy supply disruptions’ caused by Iran’s restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz during the fifth week of the US-Israel-Iran conflict [3]. Kuria’s forecast suggests fuel prices in Kenya will reach between Ksh 230 and Ksh 250 per litre in April 2026, representing a dramatic increase from current maximum retail prices of Ksh 178.28 per litre for super petrol in Nairobi [3].
Global Supply Chain Disruption
The ongoing Middle East conflict has significantly disrupted global energy markets, with Iran’s actions affecting approximately 20% of the world’s crude oil supply through the strategic Strait of Hormuz [3]. Brent Crude prices have surged to between $105.39 and $105.62, marking increases of 35 to 64 per cent during March 2026 alone [3]. This price volatility has rippled through global markets, with the conflict entering its fifth week as of early April 2026 [3]. President William Ruto acknowledged on 30 March 2026 that ‘the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is having a significant impact on the global economy’ and that ‘this disruption is already being felt across global supply chains’ [3].
Government Response and Mitigation Measures
Despite the alarming predictions, President Ruto has attempted to reassure Kenyans about fuel security measures. On 30 March 2026, he stated that ‘measures are being put in place to moderate any adverse effects and ensure that Kenya maintains adequate supplies’ [1]. The government has relied on its Government-to-Government fuel procurement arrangement, which Ruto claims ‘has cushioned Kenyans from immediate shocks’ from rising international oil prices [1]. However, Kuria has advised against implementing fuel subsidies as a short-term solution, arguing that such measures could undermine Kenya’s macroeconomic gains [1][3].
Regional Implications for Vulnerable Communities
The predicted fuel price surge carries significant implications for refugee camps and host communities in regions like Turkana County, where Kakuma and Kalobeyei camps are located [GPT]. Higher fuel costs directly impact transportation of essential supplies, food distribution networks, and operational costs for humanitarian organisations serving refugee populations [GPT]. Kuria’s warning of April being the ‘most brutal month’ suggests potential disruptions to aid delivery systems and increased costs for basic services that both refugee and host communities depend upon [1]. The economic advisor expressed hope that ‘Netanyahu, Trump, and the faceless IRGC leadership in Tehran come back to their senses to save the world’ from the escalating economic consequences [1].