US Climate Policy Reversal Set to Increase Global Fuel Costs by 75 Cents Per Gallon
Washington, 15 February 2026
America’s repeal of greenhouse gas vehicle standards will push petrol prices up significantly by 2050, creating ripple effects across global markets that could impact essential supplies reaching vulnerable communities worldwide, including refugee populations in East Africa.
Trump Administration’s Climate Rollback Creates Economic Controversy
On Thursday, 12 February 2026, the Trump administration announced the finalised repeal of the endangerment finding, claiming the move would save Americans money by ending greenhouse gas standards for vehicles [1]. The administration estimates the rollback would save the US $1.3 trillion by 2055, with $1.1 trillion from reduced vehicle prices and $200 billion from slashed electric vehicle purchases [1]. However, the Environmental Protection Agency’s own analysis reveals a starkly different picture, indicating the US will incur $1.4 trillion in additional costs through 2055 from increased fuel purchases, vehicle repair and maintenance, insurance, traffic congestion, and noise, plus $40 billion from reduced energy security, increased refuelling time, and lowered ‘drive value’ [1].
Fuel Price Surge Contradicts Administration Claims
The regulatory impact analysis shows eliminating greenhouse gas standards will increase gasoline prices by $0.75 per gallon by 2050 [1]. Critics note this represents approximately a 29% increase in gasoline prices compared to maintaining current policies [1]. Kathy Harris from the Natural Resources Defense Council emphasised the contradiction, stating ‘Their own analysis shows that the costs outweigh the benefits’ [1]. The repeal of the endangerment finding will impose an estimated cost of $1.5 trillion, overshadowing the projected $1.3 trillion in savings [1]. Despite these figures, an EPA spokesperson defended the decision, claiming ‘The Trump EPA is following the law, ending the bogus overreach of previous administrations done by agenda-driven climate zealots’ [1].
Global Commodity Markets Face Pressure from US Policy Changes
The projected 75-cent increase in US petrol prices by 2050 threatens to create ripple effects across global fuel and commodity markets [GPT]. Historical patterns demonstrate that rising fuel costs directly impact transportation expenses for essential goods, including food imports and healthcare supplies that vulnerable populations depend upon [GPT]. The Environmental Defense Fund projects that repealing the endangerment finding could increase US greenhouse gas emissions by 10% by 2055, imposing up to $4.7 trillion in additional expenses tied to climate and air pollution [1]. These costs extend beyond American borders, as global commodity prices typically respond to US energy market fluctuations [GPT].
East African Markets Already Under Strain
Kenya’s fuel market has experienced recent volatility, with the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) announcing reduced petrol prices by KSh 4.24 per litre, diesel by KSh 3.93, and kerosene by KSh 1.00 on 14 February 2026 [2][3]. However, this temporary relief comes against a backdrop of broader economic challenges. Between 2023 and 2024, Africa experienced the sharpest rise in food costs globally [alert! ‘Facebook source inaccessible due to browser compatibility’]. Kenya’s external debt exceeds $40 billion, with debt service consuming approximately 60% of revenues, creating additional pressure on the government’s ability to subsidise essential goods [4]. The country experienced finance bill riots in June 2024, demonstrating public sensitivity to fuel and commodity price increases [4].