South Sudan Oil Production Reaches 150,000 Barrels Daily as Refugee Return Decisions Loom
Juba, 18 May 2026
South Sudan’s oil output has stabilised at 150,000 barrels per day as of April 2026, marking a significant recovery from conflict-induced shutdowns that began in 2013. With oil revenue comprising 98% of the national budget, this production increase signals potential economic stability that could influence the return decisions of thousands of South Sudanese refugees currently in Kakuma and Kalobeyei camps. The recovery follows the 2018 resumption of the Toma South oilfield and ongoing restructuring at state oil company Nilepet, creating cautious optimism amongst displaced populations monitoring their homeland’s progress towards sustainable peace and prosperity.
Production Recovery Shows Gradual Progress
Current oil production figures reveal South Sudan has maintained output at 0.15 million barrels per day (150,000 barrels daily) in April 2026, unchanged from March levels [2]. This represents a substantial recovery from the country’s darkest period when production fell to zero in January 1993 and remained severely disrupted during the civil war years [2]. The nation’s oil sector reached its historical peak of 0.24 million barrels per day in January 2012, before conflict and economic pressures decimated operations [2]. The resumption of the Toma South oilfield in August 2018, which had been suspended since 2013 due to civil war, marked a crucial turning point with initial production of 20,000 barrels per day [1]. Government projections at that time anticipated reaching 210,000 barrels per day by the end of 2018 following maintenance work on five previously suspended oil fields [1].
Economic Foundation Drives Recovery Prospects
The critical importance of oil revenue to South Sudan’s economy cannot be overstated, with petroleum income accounting for 98 percent of the country’s national budget [1]. This heavy dependence on oil exports creates both vulnerability and opportunity for economic stability. Professor Kimo Adiebo from the University of Juba explained in 2018 that increased oil output would enable the government to avoid printing money and borrowing from the central bank, thereby controlling inflation and exchange rates whilst achieving gradual macroeconomic stability [1]. The most recent trade data shows China imported US$299.97 million worth of goods from South Sudan during 2024, with mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products comprising virtually the entire amount at $299.96 million [5]. This demonstrates South Sudan’s continued reliance on oil exports as its primary revenue source and connection to global markets.
Leadership Changes Signal Institutional Reform
Recent leadership changes within South Sudan’s oil sector suggest ongoing efforts to strengthen institutional capacity and governance. Marina Ayen Gregory Vasili officially assumed office as the new Deputy Managing Director of the National Petroleum and Gas Corporation (Nilepet) on 15 May 2026, replacing Ambassador Martha Nyamal Choat, who was relieved of her duties the previous month [7]. This appointment represents part of Nilepet’s broader restructuring and operational reforms as the state oil company adapts to changing market conditions [7]. Such institutional changes could signal improved governance and transparency in the oil sector, factors that refugees and international observers often monitor when assessing the country’s stability and potential for sustainable development.
Regional Context Influences Refugee Calculations
The regional energy landscape continues evolving, with potential implications for South Sudan’s market positioning and economic prospects. Nigerian industrialist Aliko Dangote confirmed on 16 May 2026 that plans for a 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery in East Africa remain on track, with technical teams evaluating suitable locations [4]. Speaking after discussions with Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan, Dangote indicated the refinery would likely commence operations within 2026 and noted that East African governments, including Tanzania, have been invited to take equity stakes [4]. Such regional infrastructure development could create new market opportunities for South Sudan’s crude oil exports whilst potentially affecting pricing dynamics. For refugees monitoring their homeland’s prospects, these broader regional developments add another layer of complexity to decisions about potential return, as improved regional integration could enhance South Sudan’s economic resilience and growth prospects.