Why the United States is being urged to reshape its military strategy in Somalia
Mogadishu, 16 July 2026
Security experts warn that a sudden US withdrawal could destabilise East Africa, even as American airstrikes in Somalia have nearly quadrupled since early 2025.
A Dramatic Escalation in Kinetic Warfare
Since 1 February 2025, the second Trump administration has aggressively expanded its counterterrorism operations in the Horn of Africa, conducting 198 precision airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia [2]. This represents a massive escalation compared to the 51 airstrikes authorized during the entirety of the preceding Biden administration [2]. To quantify this surge, the current administration has increased the frequency of these kinetic operations by 288.235% [2]. This intensive air campaign has particularly focused on Puntland, a breakaway northern region where U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) has intensified strikes as recently as 13 July 2026, despite a broader strategic directive in the late 2025 National Security Strategy to de-emphasise direct military engagements in Africa [2].
A History of Fluctuating Engagement
This heavy reliance on aerial warfare marks another volatile chapter in the United States’ decades-long military involvement in Somalia [2]. Historically, Washington’s footprint has fluctuated wildly, from the tragic 1993 “Black Hawk Down” incident that resulted in 18 U.S. fatalities and a subsequent complete withdrawal by March 1994, to the redeployment of approximately 700 special operations forces in 2017 [2]. Although President Donald Trump ordered a drawdown of ground forces in late 2020, President Joe Biden redeployed around 450 troops in 2022 [2]. Today, security analysts argue that these persistent airstrikes have failed to achieve long-term strategic objectives and may instead be bolstering extremist recruitment by fostering anti-American sentiment among local populations [2].
Refugee Vulnerabilities and Regional Repercussions
For the hundreds of thousands of Somali refugees residing in the Kakuma and Kalobeyei camps in neighbouring Kenya, these security developments carry profound and immediate consequences [GPT]. The safety of their relatives remaining in Somalia is directly tied to the shifting frontlines of the conflict, while the prospect of voluntary repatriation remains highly dangerous due to the U.S. State Department’s ongoing “Level Four, Do Not Travel” warning for the country [1]. Furthermore, regional instability directly compromises border security, potentially driving new waves of displaced people into Kenya and straining the shared resources of both refugee and host communities in the Turkana region [GPT].
The Looming Financial and Logistical Vacuum
The fragile security architecture keeping al-Shabaab at bay is currently facing a critical funding crisis [1]. On 8 July 2026, African Union (AU) officials convened an emergency meeting to warn that the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM)—which employs roughly 12,000 personnel—will become entirely unsustainable without continued United Nations logistical support for transport, food, and medical services [1][2]. This warning is compounded by plans from the U.S. government to oppose all logistical and financial support for AUSSOM when the mission transitions to its next phase in 2027 [1]. Security experts warn that a premature withdrawal of international logistical backing could create a security vacuum, allowing al-Shabaab to expand its territory and project violence across East African borders [1].
Geopolitical Rivalries and the Somaliland Question
The geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa is further complicated by intense competition between global powers [2]. While the United States operates approximately 29 military bases across Africa, China has steadily expanded its economic footprint, with foreign direct investment in Sub-Saharan Africa rising from $75 million in 2003 to $3.3 billion in 2024 [2]. In April 2025, Beijing solidified its influence by signing a $1.2 billion infrastructure investment deal with the Somali government [2]. To counter this growing Chinese presence and secure vital maritime shipping lanes—which carry roughly 15% of global trade—the Trump administration has been actively negotiating with the breakaway region of Somaliland [2][3].
The Risks of Fragmented Recognition
These negotiations, which emerged publicly around 26 March 2026, involve the potential formal recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state in exchange for critical mineral mining rights and the construction of up to four new U.S. naval and air bases [2]. However, such a move remains highly controversial [2]. Critics point out that the January 2024 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which offered diplomatic recognition in exchange for Ethiopian access to the Port of Berbera, has already triggered a massive surge in al-Shabaab recruitment [2]. Analysts warn that formal U.S. recognition of Somaliland could further inflame regional tensions and undermine the territorial integrity of the federal government in Mogadishu [2].
Federal Fault Lines and the Path Forward
Internal political fragmentation remains one of the greatest obstacles to achieving lasting peace in Somalia [4]. The country has not held direct national elections since 1991, and constitutional amendments passed in 2024 to establish a “one-person, one-vote” system have faced severe political pushback [1]. The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) is locked in a persistent dispute with Federal Member States (FMS), particularly Puntland and Jubaland, over constitutional review, electoral planning, and fiscal coordination [4]. This division reached a critical point when the Jubaland government suspended ties with the federal administration on 28 November 2024 [2].
An Alternative Strategic Approach
Al-Shabaab consistently exploits these governance vacuums and institutional gridlocks to provide shadow administrative services, resolve local disputes, and recruit marginalized clans [4]. Security analysts from the Hiraal Institute emphasize that military gains against the insurgent group are unsustainable without concurrent improvements in governance, accountability, and political unity [4]. Rather than writing an open-ended “blank check” or abruptly walking away, security experts advise the United States to tie its future assistance to transparent benchmarks in security sector reform and fiscal accountability, ensuring that military operations are supported by a unified Somali state [1].